That February 2013 finding bolstered the idea that people drained Rapa Nui’s limited resources.
Archaeologists have identified the remains of rock gardens on which islanders would have grown sweet potatoes and other crops. The scattered and pulverized rocks make the land more productive by adding and sealing in nutrients and moisture and protecting young plants from winds — an ancient farming technique also known as rock mulching.
However, in the new study, Davis and his colleagues found that the maximum number of people on Rapa Nui was nearly 4,000, less than one-quarter of that higher estimate.
The team determined the substantially smaller population count by using a machine learning model trained to identify rock gardens from high-resolution shortwave infrared and near-infrared data gathered by satellite.
“What we use in this paper is called shortwave infrared imagery,” Davis said, “and it’s really good at picking up on very subtle differences in moisture content and mineralogical changes in the soil.”
The researchers found that rock gardens, identifiable by patterns of vegetation and soil composition, covered about three-quarters of 1 square kilometer (0.4 square mile), and rock garden cultivation alone would only have supported around 2,000 people. When combined with estimates for the availability of fishing and other marine foods, the team believes Rapa Nui could have sustained a population of 3,901 people.
Davis said the team manually verified the model, which was 83% accurate. “This is good at the moment because of the data that’s available,” he said. “If there were any obvious errors, we removed them.”
Another limitation of the approach was the possibility that rock gardening features could have been destroyed over the centuries.
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